A second-order Monte Carlo simulation model to describe coagulase-positive Staphylococci growth in mayonnaise served in Algerian pizzerias.

To bridge the data gap on food poisoning caused by coagulase-positive staphylococci (CoPS), especially related to mayonnaise sauce served at Algerian pizzerias, this study aimed to assess the concentration of CoPS in mayonnaise and the probability of exceeding a critical concentration of ≥ 5 log CFU/g. The city of Ain Temouchent in West Algeria was taken as a case study. A probabilistic assessment model was built, taking into account the initial contamination in freshly made mayonnaise and the potential growth before serving. Uncertainty and variability were integrated separately in the model. Uncertainty came from lack of data and model fitting error, variability from natural heterogeneity of biological materials (e.g., microbial strains) and temperature during cold storage. The second-order Monte Carlo procedure was implemented in R using the mc2d package. The following pieces of data were generated to populate the model: CoPS were enumerated and characterized from 57 samples of mayonnaise...