Deterministic approach and Monte Carlo simulation to predict Listeria monocytogenes time to grow on refrigerated ham: a study supporting risk-based decisions for consumers' health.

This study assessed the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham during storage under conditions simulating domestic practices with the intention to offer support in the elaboration of food safety policies that should better protect consumers against food poisoning at home. RTE ham, artificially contaminated at either medium (10²-10³ CFU/g) or high (10⁴-10⁵ CFU/g) concentration, was stored at both isothermal (4°C in a refrigerator able to maintain a relatively constant temperature and 5°C and 7°C in a refrigerator with fluctuating temperature) and dynamic (5°C and 7°C with intermittent exposure to ambient temperature, e.g. 25°C) conditions. Under isothermal conditions, the increasing storage temperature determined a significantly increased (p < 0.05) capacity of L. monocytogenes to grow. The kinetic growth parameters were derived by fitting the Baranyi and Roberts model to the experimental data and, based on the maximum specific growth rates, it was...